October 5, 2024
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 144 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (16 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 174 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 182 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Tecia Pennington earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 123 | 150 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 116 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 140 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Tecia Pennington controlled the striking exchanges with 94 vs 116 total strikes, 80 vs 39 significant strikes, 53.3% vs 31.7% accuracy. Tecia Pennington capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:40 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 228 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tecia Pennington did not secure a significant ground advantage against Carla Esparza on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 694 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 178 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +54 |
Tecia Pennington demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tecia Pennington capitalized on this activity level, while Carla Esparza's 694-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 165 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +32 |
Tecia Pennington started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carla Esparza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.