April 26, 2019
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 042 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Carla Esparza's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Carla Esparza for the expected result. Had Virna Jandiroba pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 052 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 128 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Carla Esparza earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 970 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Carla Esparza controlled the striking exchanges with 97 vs 64 total strikes, 25 vs 17 significant strikes. Carla Esparza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:27 | 3:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 148 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Carla Esparza controlled Virna Jandiroba on the ground with 4 vs 3 takedowns, 5:27 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 068 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Carla Esparza demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Carla Esparza capitalized on this activity level, while Virna Jandiroba's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 040 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Carla Esparza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Virna Jandiroba is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.