May 21, 2021
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 179 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Carla Esparza's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Carla Esparza for the expected result. Had Yan Xiaonan pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 130 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:58 | 2:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 253 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | +94 | -46 |
Carla Esparza gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 170 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 182 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +128 | -128 |
Carla Esparza dominated the striking exchanges with 170 vs 31 total strikes, 27 vs 5 significant strikes, 81.8% vs 45.5% accuracy. Carla Esparza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:18 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 26 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 347 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Carla Esparza dominated Yan Xiaonan on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:18 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 301 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 206 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Carla Esparza demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Carla Esparza capitalized on this activity level, while Yan Xiaonan's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 164 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -24 |
Carla Esparza continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Yan Xiaonan's now at 0.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 109 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.