November 11, 2022
UFC Women's Strawweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 187 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +43 |
Zhang Weili overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Carla Esparza.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 205 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +66 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Zhang Weili captured the UFC Women's Strawweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:05 | 1:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 237 | 1 406 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +49 |
Zhang Weili earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Carla Esparza was submitted.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 178 | 1 376 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Zhang Weili controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 19 total strikes, 37 vs 6 significant strikes, 47.4% vs 18.8% accuracy. Zhang Weili capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:55 | 1:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 259 | 1 440 |
| ELO Change | -134 | +134 |
Zhang Weili dominated Carla Esparza on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:30 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 205 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +41 |
Zhang Weili demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Zhang Weili capitalized on this activity level, while Carla Esparza's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 194 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Zhang Weili extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carla Esparza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 109 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.