June 14, 2024
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 964 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Gabriella Fernandes's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabriella Fernandes for the expected result. Had Carli Judice pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 976 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 987 | 930 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Gabriella Fernandes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 169 | 119 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 323 | 234 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 186 | 126 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 973 | 930 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Carli Judice controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (186 vs 126 total strikes), significant strike advantage (169 vs 119). However, since Carli Judice lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gabriella Fernandes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:04 | 2:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 947 | 886 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Gabriella Fernandes edged out Carli Judice on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:40 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 976 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Gabriella Fernandes demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Gabriella Fernandes capitalized on this activity level, while Carli Judice's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 976 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Gabriella Fernandes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carli Judice is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carli Judice | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 976 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
