October 15, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 094 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -45 |
Carlos Condit overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Dan Hardy.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 052 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:27 | 4:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 224 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | +118 | -55 |
Carlos Condit earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 271 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +161 | -161 |
Carlos Condit controlled the striking exchanges with 26 vs 9 significant strikes, 44.1% vs 22.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Carlos Condit capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 147 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 109 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -29 |
Carlos Condit demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Condit capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Hardy's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -26 |
Carlos Condit extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Hardy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 051 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.