August 26, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 166 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Demian Maia's 11-fight experience advantage (24 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demian Maia for the expected result. Had Carlos Condit pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:52 | 1:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 356 | 1 581 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +47 |
Demian Maia earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:52, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 366 | 1 518 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 2 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 188 | 1 663 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Demian Maia dominated Carlos Condit on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:19 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 180 | 1 442 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +22 |
Demian Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +31 |
Demian Maia continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Carlos Condit's now at 0.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.