September 15, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 011 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 007 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Carlos Condit receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 70 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 168 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 026 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Carlos Condit dominated the striking exchanges with 168 vs 55 total strikes, 38.6% vs 47.5% accuracy. Carlos Condit capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:58 | 6:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 004 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Carlos Condit did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jake Ellenberger on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:58 of control time, 19 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 025 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -22 |
Carlos Condit demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Condit capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Ellenberger's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 008 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Carlos Condit started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Ellenberger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

