March 15, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Johny Hendricks's 3-fight experience advantage (11 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Johny Hendricks for the expected result. Had Carlos Condit pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 076 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 326 | 1 596 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Johny Hendricks earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 145 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 94 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 392 | 1 579 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Carlos Condit controlled the striking through superior volume (94 vs 69 total strikes), significant strike advantage (42 vs 30), superior accuracy (29.0% vs 42.3%). However, since Carlos Condit lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Johny Hendricks's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 8:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 170 | 1 473 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Johny Hendricks controlled Carlos Condit on the ground with 12 vs 0 takedowns, 8:01 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 150 | 1 370 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +27 |
Johny Hendricks demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Johny Hendricks capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 118 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +36 |
Johny Hendricks continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Carlos Condit's now at 0.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Johny Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

