March 31, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Martin Kampmann's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Martin Kampmann for the expected result. Had Carlos Condit pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 996 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Martin Kampmann receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 86 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 988 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Carlos Condit controlled the striking through superior volume (71 vs 52 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (35 vs 26). However, since Carlos Condit lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Martin Kampmann's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:10 | 7:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 973 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Martin Kampmann controlled Carlos Condit on the ground with 5 vs 3 takedowns, 7:48 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 74 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +38 |
Martin Kampmann demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 74 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Martin Kampmann capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Martin Kampmann extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Condit is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Martin Kampmann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.