January 15, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 27 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 153 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -34 |
Carlos Condit overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (18 vs 27 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Brown.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 306 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Carlos Condit earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 88 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 157 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 298 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Carlos Condit dominated the striking exchanges with 157 vs 37 total strikes, 39 vs 28 significant strikes, 44.3% vs 75.7% accuracy. Carlos Condit capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:52 | 6:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 081 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Carlos Condit edged out Matt Brown on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 4:52 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 1 222 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -28 |
Carlos Condit demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Condit capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 246-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 110 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -25 |
Carlos Condit extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.