December 28, 2018
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 080 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +36 |
Michael Chiesa overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Carlos Condit.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:56 | 0:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 233 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +67 |
Michael Chiesa earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:56, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Carlos Condit was submitted.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 259 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Michael Chiesa slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 10 vs 5 significant strikes, 45.5% vs 20.8% accuracy. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 4:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 961 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | -106 | +106 |
Michael Chiesa dominated Carlos Condit on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 4:12 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 139 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Michael Chiesa demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 061 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Michael Chiesa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Condit is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

