Carlos Condit vs Michael Chiesa

December 28, 2018

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1095
(-38)
Carlos Condit
Winner: Michael Chiesa
Submission
Round 2 • 0:56

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Carlos Condit-38
Michael Chiesa+44
1178
(+44)
Michael Chiesa

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -29Michael Chiesa: +36

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Total UFC Fights1612
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 0801 178
ELO Change-29+36
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Carlos Condit.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -19Michael Chiesa: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0171 086
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -43Michael Chiesa: +67

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish0:560:56
Win Type ELO1 2331 332
ELO Change-43+67
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What Happened

Michael Chiesa earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:56, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Carlos Condit was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -48Michael Chiesa: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Significant Strikes Landed510
Significant Strikes Attempted2422
Total Strikes Landed2016
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2591 125
ELO Change-48+48
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 10 vs 5 significant strikes, 45.5% vs 20.8% accuracy. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -106Michael Chiesa: +106

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Takedowns Landed04
Takedowns Attempted05
Ground Control Time0:184:12
Ground Strikes Landed16
Ground ELO9611 292
ELO Change-106+106
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa dominated Carlos Condit on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 4:12 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -20Michael Chiesa: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Days Since Last Fight260176
Activity ELO1 1391 213
ELO Change-20+35
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -20Michael Chiesa: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0611 119
ELO Change-20+22
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Condit is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Condit: -19Michael Chiesa: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0061 082
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.