December 29, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 137 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Neil Magny's 4-fight experience advantage (18 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had Carlos Condit pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 055 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 315 | 1 407 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Neil Magny earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 114 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 337 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Carlos Condit controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (37 vs 32). However, since Carlos Condit lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Neil Magny's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:44 | 5:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 118 | 1 365 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Neil Magny dominated Carlos Condit on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 5:09 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 491 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 172 | 1 441 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +21 |
Neil Magny demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's 491-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 101 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Neil Magny started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Condit is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

