January 1, 2016
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 188 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Robbie Lawler's 4-fight experience advantage (16 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robbie Lawler for the expected result. Had Carlos Condit pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +37 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Robbie Lawler captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 381 | 1 538 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Robbie Lawler receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 176 | 92 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 495 | 177 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 177 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 399 | 1 575 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Carlos Condit controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (177 vs 93 total strikes), significant strike advantage (176 vs 92), superior accuracy (35.6% vs 52.0%). However, since Carlos Condit lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Robbie Lawler's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 0:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 206 | 1 438 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Robbie Lawler landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 189 | 1 416 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +18 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 130 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Robbie Lawler continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Carlos Condit's now at 0.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.