June 11, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 043 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 027 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:53 | 4:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 106 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +99 | -49 |
Carlos Condit gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 170 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 149 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 110 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Carlos Condit dominated the striking exchanges with 149 vs 40 total strikes, 72 vs 29 significant strikes. Carlos Condit capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:07 | 3:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 29 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 075 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Carlos Condit controlled Rory MacDonald on the ground with 0 takedowns, 4:07 of control time, 29 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 269 | 152 |
| Activity ELO | 1 051 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Carlos Condit demonstrated standard activity with 269 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Condit capitalized on this activity level, while Rory MacDonald's 152-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Carlos Condit extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rory MacDonald is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 027 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.