May 29, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 212 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -36 |
Carlos Condit overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Alves.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 099 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 378 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Carlos Condit gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 75 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 162 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 107 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 437 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | +100 | -100 |
Carlos Condit dominated the striking exchanges with 107 vs 35 total strikes, 75 vs 34 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Carlos Condit capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:33 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 235 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -93 |
Carlos Condit controlled Thiago Alves on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:33 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 441 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 199 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -30 |
Carlos Condit demonstrated extended layoff with 441 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Carlos Condit capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Alves's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 146 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -27 |
Carlos Condit started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Condit | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 092 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.