February 4, 2011
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 029 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Jake Ellenberger's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Ellenberger for the expected result. Had Carlos Eduardo Rocha pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 056 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jake Ellenberger receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 001 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Jake Ellenberger slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:34 | 1:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 996 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Jake Ellenberger edged out Carlos Eduardo Rocha on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 1:45 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Jake Ellenberger demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Eduardo Rocha's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Jake Ellenberger extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Eduardo Rocha is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Eduardo Rocha | Jake Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.