January 15, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 037 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 048 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Carlos Felipe receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 77 | 86 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 142 | 148 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 003 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Justin Tafa controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (109 vs 77 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (86 vs 77). However, since Justin Tafa lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Carlos Felipe's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 1:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Carlos Felipe did not secure a significant ground advantage against Justin Tafa on the ground with 0:41 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 343 |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -19 |
Carlos Felipe demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Felipe capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Tafa's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 028 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Carlos Felipe extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Tafa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

