Carlos Felipe vs Justin Tafa

January 15, 2021

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1030
(+26)
Carlos Felipe
Winner: Carlos Felipe
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Carlos Felipe+26
Justin Tafa-21
998
(-21)
Justin Tafa

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +33Justin Tafa: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Total UFC Fights33
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO1 037995
ELO Change+33-22
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +21Justin Tafa: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +12Justin Tafa: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 0481 059
ELO Change+12-12
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Carlos Felipe receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +23Justin Tafa: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Significant Strikes Landed7786
Significant Strikes Attempted142148
Total Strikes Landed77109
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 003988
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

Justin Tafa controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (109 vs 77 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (86 vs 77). However, since Justin Tafa lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Carlos Felipe's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +25Justin Tafa: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted12
Ground Control Time0:411:53
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO9851 004
ELO Change+25-25
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What Happened

Carlos Felipe did not secure a significant ground advantage against Justin Tafa on the ground with 0:41 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +49Justin Tafa: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Days Since Last Fight106343
Activity ELO1 0961 002
ELO Change+49-19
💡

What Happened

Carlos Felipe demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Felipe capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Tafa's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +25Justin Tafa: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 028981
ELO Change+25-21
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What Happened

Carlos Felipe extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Tafa is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Carlos Felipe: +21Justin Tafa: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCarlos FelipeJustin Tafa
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.