July 17, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 968 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Serghei Spivac's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Serghei Spivac for the expected result. Had Carlos Felipe pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 985 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Serghei Spivac earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 121 | 149 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 165 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 944 | 976 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Serghei Spivac dominated the striking exchanges with 165 vs 44 total strikes, 73 vs 44 significant strikes, 49.0% vs 36.4% accuracy. Serghei Spivac capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 4:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 935 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Serghei Spivac controlled Carlos Felipe on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:52 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +40 |
Serghei Spivac demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Serghei Spivac capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Felipe's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Serghei Spivac started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Felipe is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Felipe | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.