November 23, 2024
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 962 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Carlos Hernandez's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Carlos Hernandez for the expected result. Had Nyamjargal Tumendemberel pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 959 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Carlos Hernandez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 105 | 93 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 932 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Carlos Hernandez controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 26 significant strikes, 41.9% vs 28.0% accuracy. Carlos Hernandez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:45 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 012 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Carlos Hernandez controlled Nyamjargal Tumendemberel on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 4:45 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 038 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Carlos Hernandez demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Nyamjargal Tumendemberel's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Carlos Hernandez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Hernandez | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.