October 26, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 987 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rinat Fakhretdinov for the expected result. Had Carlos Leal pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 985 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 107 | 109 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 246 | 222 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 146 | 119 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 994 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
Carlos Leal controlled the striking through superior volume (146 vs 119 total strikes). However, since Carlos Leal lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rinat Fakhretdinov's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 19 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 3:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov edged out Carlos Leal on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 3:14 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +27 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rinat Fakhretdinov capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Leal's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Leal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Leal | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.