November 21, 2002
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Carlos Newton's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Carlos Newton for the expected result. Had Pete Spratt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:45 | 1:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -42 |
Carlos Newton earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 947 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 1 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:18 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 099 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Carlos Newton controlled Pete Spratt on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:18 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 038 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -23 |
Carlos Newton demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Newton capitalized on this activity level, while Pete Spratt's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 022 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Carlos Newton started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Pete Spratt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Newton | Pete Spratt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.