April 26, 2025
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 272 | 1 355 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Ian Machado Garry's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ian Machado Garry for the expected result. Had Carlos Prates pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 389 | 1 437 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Ian Machado Garry earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 126 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 129 | 242 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 141 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 415 | 1 484 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Ian Machado Garry dominated the striking exchanges with 141 vs 64 total strikes, 126 vs 63 significant strikes. Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 19 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:46 | 3:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 111 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Ian Machado Garry edged out Carlos Prates on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 3:09 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 248 | 1 352 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Ian Machado Garry demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Prates's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 112 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Ian Machado Garry started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Prates is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Prates | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 076 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.