March 5, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kennedy Nzechukwu for the expected result. Had Carlos Ulberg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:19 | 3:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 959 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +83 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 146 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 227 | 148 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 146 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 916 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -84 | +84 |
Carlos Ulberg controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (146 vs 84 total strikes), significant strike advantage (146 vs 82). However, since Carlos Ulberg lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kennedy Nzechukwu's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 942 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 582 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +18 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu demonstrated extended layoff with 582 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Kennedy Nzechukwu capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Ulberg's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Ulberg is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Ulberg | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.