March 15, 2025
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 007 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:16 | 3:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 048 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -45 |
Carlos Vera earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:16, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 041 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Carlos Vera controlled the striking exchanges with 66.7% vs 41.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Carlos Vera capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 393 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -22 |
Carlos Vera demonstrated extended layoff with 393 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Carlos Vera capitalized on this activity level, while Josias Musasa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Carlos Vera started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josias Musasa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlos Vera | Josias Musasa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.