May 7, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Carlston Harris overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Christian Aguilera.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:52 | 2:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 088 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +88 | -50 |
Carlston Harris earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:52, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 050 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Carlston Harris slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 38.5% vs 10.0% accuracy. Carlston Harris capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:52 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 035 | 900 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Carlston Harris edged out Christian Aguilera on the ground with 0:52 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Carlston Harris demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Carlston Harris capitalized on this activity level, while Christian Aguilera's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Carlston Harris started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Christian Aguilera is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Christian Aguilera |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.