March 10, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 169 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Carlston Harris earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 110 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 140 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 076 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Carlston Harris controlled the striking exchanges with 140 vs 93 total strikes, 63 vs 51 significant strikes. Carlston Harris capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:38 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 143 | 903 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -82 |
Carlston Harris dominated Jared Gooden on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 9:38 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 399 | 519 |
| Activity ELO | 1 059 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -18 |
Carlston Harris demonstrated extended layoff with 399 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Carlston Harris capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Gooden's 519-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 047 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -18 |
Carlston Harris started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jared Gooden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Jared Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.