January 11, 2025
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 091 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio's 12-fight experience advantage (19 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Santiago Ponzinibbio for the expected result. Had Carlston Harris pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:13 | 3:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 204 | 1 477 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +37 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 73 | 76 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 196 | 175 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 031 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Santiago Ponzinibbio capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 089 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 073 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Santiago Ponzinibbio capitalized on this activity level, while Carlston Harris's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 041 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlston Harris is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carlston Harris | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.