December 29, 2006
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 053 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:22 | 3:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 986 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +46 |
Gabriel Gonzaga earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:22, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 990 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Gabriel Gonzaga edged the striking exchanges with 40.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 019 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -98 | +98 |
Gabriel Gonzaga dominated Carmelo Marrero on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:58 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 78 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 008 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Gabriel Gonzaga demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this activity level, while Carmelo Marrero's 78-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Gabriel Gonzaga extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carmelo Marrero is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.