March 31, 2009
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 989 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +36 |
Ryan Bader overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Carmelo Marrero.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 930 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Ryan Bader earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 849 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Ryan Bader dominated the striking exchanges with 87 vs 20 total strikes, 24 vs 9 significant strikes, 42.9% vs 20.9% accuracy. Ryan Bader capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:01 | 10:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 870 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Ryan Bader dominated Carmelo Marrero on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:06 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 676 | 109 |
| Activity ELO | 971 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +48 |
Ryan Bader demonstrated solid activity levels with 109 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Carmelo Marrero's 676-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Ryan Bader extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carmelo Marrero is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

