Carmelo Marrero vs Ryan Bader

March 31, 2009

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

938
(-29)
Carmelo Marrero
Winner: Ryan Bader
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Carmelo Marrero-29
Ryan Bader+33
1080
(+33)
Ryan Bader

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -31Ryan Bader: +36

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Total UFC Fights42
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO9891 057
ELO Change-31+36
💡

What Happened

Ryan Bader overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Carmelo Marrero.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -19Ryan Bader: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9641 040
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -26Ryan Bader: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9301 121
ELO Change-26+26
💡

What Happened

Ryan Bader earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -21Ryan Bader: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Significant Strikes Landed924
Significant Strikes Attempted4356
Total Strikes Landed2087
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO8491 141
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Ryan Bader dominated the striking exchanges with 87 vs 20 total strikes, 24 vs 9 significant strikes, 42.9% vs 20.9% accuracy. Ryan Bader capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -75Ryan Bader: +75

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Takedowns Landed05
Takedowns Attempted07
Ground Control Time1:0110:06
Ground Strikes Landed114
Ground ELO8701 128
ELO Change-75+75
💡

What Happened

Ryan Bader dominated Carmelo Marrero on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:06 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -19Ryan Bader: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Days Since Last Fight676109
Activity ELO9711 069
ELO Change-19+48
💡

What Happened

Ryan Bader demonstrated solid activity levels with 109 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Carmelo Marrero's 676-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -19Ryan Bader: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9671 046
ELO Change-19+23
💡

What Happened

Ryan Bader extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carmelo Marrero is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Carmelo Marrero: -19Ryan Bader: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricCarmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9641 040
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.