May 25, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 020 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:06 | 3:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 956 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +50 |
Wilson Gouveia earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 870 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -120 | +120 |
Wilson Gouveia controlled the striking exchanges with 29 vs 1 total strikes, 18 vs 1 significant strikes, 58.1% vs 14.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Wilson Gouveia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 945 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Wilson Gouveia dominated Carmelo Marrero on the ground with 0:39 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 51 |
| Activity ELO | 990 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +88 |
Wilson Gouveia demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 51 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Wilson Gouveia capitalized on this activity level, while Carmelo Marrero's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Wilson Gouveia extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carmelo Marrero is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carmelo Marrero | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.