February 22, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Sam Stout's 14-fight experience advantage (15 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Stout for the expected result. Had Caros Fodor pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 993 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sam Stout receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 92 | 120 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 986 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Sam Stout slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 38.3% vs 51.1% accuracy. Sam Stout capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:07 | 6:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 931 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Sam Stout controlled Caros Fodor on the ground with 1 takedown, 6:39 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +38 |
Sam Stout demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Stout capitalized on this activity level, while Caros Fodor's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Sam Stout started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Caros Fodor is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Caros Fodor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

