Casey Kenney vs Louis Smolka

May 29, 2020

Bantamweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1081
(+40)
Casey Kenney
Winner: Casey Kenney
Submission
Round 1 • 3:03

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Casey Kenney+40
Louis Smolka-30
1010
(-30)
Louis Smolka

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +38Louis Smolka: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Total UFC Fights414
Experience Gap-1010
Experience ELO1 132975
ELO Change+38-23
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What Happened

Casey Kenney overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Louis Smolka.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +20Louis Smolka: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 044993
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +79Louis Smolka: -48

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:033:03
Win Type ELO1 1461 067
ELO Change+79-48
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What Happened

Casey Kenney earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:03, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +42Louis Smolka: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Significant Strikes Landed3218
Significant Strikes Attempted5243
Total Strikes Landed3218
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0831 050
ELO Change+42-42
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What Happened

Casey Kenney edged the striking exchanges with 32 vs 18 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 41.9% accuracy. Casey Kenney capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +44Louis Smolka: -44

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted01
Ground Control Time0:090:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 037959
ELO Change+44-44
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +53Louis Smolka: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Days Since Last Fight105259
Activity ELO1 1071 034
ELO Change+53-21
💡

What Happened

Casey Kenney demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Casey Kenney capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +23Louis Smolka: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 0551 012
ELO Change+23-21
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What Happened

Casey Kenney started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Casey Kenney: +20Louis Smolka: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey KenneyLouis Smolka
Weight ClassBantamweightBantamweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 043992
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.