May 29, 2020
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -23 |
Casey Kenney overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Louis Smolka.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:03 | 3:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 146 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -48 |
Casey Kenney earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:03, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 083 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Casey Kenney edged the striking exchanges with 32 vs 18 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 41.9% accuracy. Casey Kenney capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 037 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 107 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -21 |
Casey Kenney demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Casey Kenney capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Casey Kenney started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.