February 14, 2020
Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 094 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Merab Dvalishvili's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Merab Dvalishvili for the expected result. Had Casey Kenney pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 067 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Merab Dvalishvili earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 118 | 181 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 114 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 041 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Merab Dvalishvili dominated the striking exchanges with 114 vs 47 total strikes, 63 vs 45 significant strikes. Merab Dvalishvili capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 24 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 5:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 993 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Merab Dvalishvili dominated Casey Kenney on the ground with 12 vs 0 takedowns, 5:40 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 288 |
| Activity ELO | 1 054 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Merab Dvalishvili demonstrated standard activity with 288 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Merab Dvalishvili capitalized on this activity level, while Casey Kenney's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +31 |
Merab Dvalishvili extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Casey Kenney is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Casey Kenney | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.