Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes

March 28, 2026

Women's Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1130
(+32)
Casey O'Neill
Winner: Casey O'Neill
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 3:11

C-ELO Evolution

Casey O'Neill+32
Gabriella Fernandes-27
1000
(-27)
Gabriella Fernandes

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +26Gabriella Fernandes: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Total UFC Fights86
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 1391 024
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

Casey O'Neill's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Casey O'Neill for the expected result. Had Gabriella Fernandes pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +19Gabriella Fernandes: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0681 003
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +65Gabriella Fernandes: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:113:11
Win Type ELO1 2321 037
ELO Change+65-30
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What Happened

Casey O'Neill earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:11, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +79Gabriella Fernandes: -79

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Significant Strikes Landed258
Significant Strikes Attempted6633
Total Strikes Landed258
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 208936
ELO Change+79-79
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What Happened

Casey O'Neill controlled the striking exchanges with 25 vs 8 significant strikes, 37.9% vs 24.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Casey O'Neill capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +14Gabriella Fernandes: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 092947
ELO Change+14-14
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What Happened

The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +14Gabriella Fernandes: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Days Since Last Fight589231
Activity ELO1 1441 030
ELO Change+14-16
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What Happened

Casey O'Neill demonstrated extended layoff with 589 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Casey O'Neill capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriella Fernandes's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +23Gabriella Fernandes: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 0921 016
ELO Change+23-19
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What Happened

Casey O'Neill extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriella Fernandes is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Casey O'Neill: +19Gabriella Fernandes: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricCasey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Weight ClassWomen's FlyweightWomen's Flyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0681 003
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.