March 28, 2026
Women's Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 139 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Casey O'Neill's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Casey O'Neill for the expected result. Had Gabriella Fernandes pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:11 | 3:11 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 232 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -30 |
Casey O'Neill earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:11, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 208 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Casey O'Neill controlled the striking exchanges with 25 vs 8 significant strikes, 37.9% vs 24.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Casey O'Neill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 589 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 144 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -16 |
Casey O'Neill demonstrated extended layoff with 589 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Casey O'Neill capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriella Fernandes's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 092 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Casey O'Neill extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriella Fernandes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
