March 17, 2023
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 114 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Jennifer Maia's 6-fight experience advantage (11 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jennifer Maia for the expected result. Had Casey O'Neill pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 171 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Jennifer Maia earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 137 | 145 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 264 | 349 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 137 | 151 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Jennifer Maia edged the striking exchanges with 145 vs 137 significant strikes, 41.5% vs 51.9% accuracy. Jennifer Maia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 191 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Jennifer Maia did not secure a significant ground advantage against Casey O'Neill on the ground with 1:23 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 399 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 126 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +63 |
Jennifer Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jennifer Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Casey O'Neill's 399-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 067 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Jennifer Maia extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Casey O'Neill is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Jennifer Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.