June 18, 2021
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 092 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:54 | 2:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 150 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -35 |
Casey O'Neill earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lara Procopio was submitted.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 71 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 129 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 176 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 104 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Casey O'Neill dominated the striking exchanges with 176 vs 76 total strikes, 71 vs 41 significant strikes, 55.0% vs 63.1% accuracy. Casey O'Neill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:42 | 2:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 205 | 906 |
| ELO Change | +133 | -133 |
Casey O'Neill dominated Lara Procopio on the ground with 1 takedown, 5:42 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 070 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -20 |
Casey O'Neill demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Casey O'Neill capitalized on this activity level, while Lara Procopio's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Casey O'Neill extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lara Procopio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Lara Procopio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.