August 16, 2024
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 113 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Casey O'Neill's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Casey O'Neill for the expected result. Had Luana Santos pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 167 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Casey O'Neill earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 83 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 193 | 97 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 113 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 129 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Casey O'Neill dominated the striking exchanges with 113 vs 46 total strikes, 83 vs 41 significant strikes. Casey O'Neill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:21 | 2:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 078 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Casey O'Neill controlled Luana Santos on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:21 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | 35 |
| Activity ELO | 1 130 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Casey O'Neill demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Casey O'Neill capitalized on this activity level, while Luana Santos's 35-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Casey O'Neill started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luana Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.