February 11, 2022
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 151 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -17 |
Casey O'Neill overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roxanne Modafferi.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 073 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 226 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Casey O'Neill receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 229 | 120 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 393 | 358 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 230 | 148 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 178 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Casey O'Neill dominated the striking exchanges with 230 vs 148 total strikes, 229 vs 120 significant strikes, 58.3% vs 33.5% accuracy. Casey O'Neill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 1:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 228 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
Casey O'Neill did not secure a significant ground advantage against Roxanne Modafferi on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 151 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -16 |
Casey O'Neill demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Casey O'Neill capitalized on this activity level, while Roxanne Modafferi's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 091 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -15 |
Casey O'Neill extended her 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roxanne Modafferi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Casey O'Neill | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.