July 10, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 080 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
John Howard's 8-fight experience advantage (13 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Howard for the expected result. Had Cathal Pendred pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 053 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 138 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with John Howard receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 78 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 056 | 926 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
John Howard edged the striking exchanges. John Howard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:45 | 1:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -89 | +89 |
John Howard controlled Cathal Pendred on the ground with 1:35 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 28 | 174 |
| Activity ELO | 1 139 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +49 |
John Howard demonstrated solid activity levels with 174 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Howard capitalized on this activity level, while Cathal Pendred's 28-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +29 |
John Howard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cathal Pendred is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cathal Pendred | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.