May 31, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Roman Kopylov's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roman Kopylov for the expected result. Had Cesar Almeida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 080 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Roman Kopylov receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 105 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 114 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 098 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Cesar Almeida controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (114 vs 74 total strikes), significant strike advantage (58 vs 41). However, since Cesar Almeida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Roman Kopylov's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 8:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 918 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Roman Kopylov landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 56 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +36 |
Roman Kopylov demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roman Kopylov capitalized on this activity level, while Cesar Almeida's 56-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Roman Kopylov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cesar Almeida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cesar Almeida | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.