November 18, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 113 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Cezar Ferreira's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cezar Ferreira for the expected result. Had Jack Hermansson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:11 | 2:11 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 185 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -33 |
Cezar Ferreira earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:11, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jack Hermansson was submitted.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 006 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Jack Hermansson lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Cezar Ferreira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 199 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Cezar Ferreira controlled Jack Hermansson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:21 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 135 | 78 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Cezar Ferreira demonstrated solid activity levels with 135 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cezar Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Jack Hermansson's 78-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 095 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Cezar Ferreira extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jack Hermansson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.