May 11, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 158 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Cezar Ferreira's 11-fight experience advantage (13 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cezar Ferreira for the expected result. Had Karl Roberson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:45 | 4:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 208 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -31 |
Cezar Ferreira earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 047 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Karl Roberson controlled the striking through superior accuracy (66.7% vs 83.3%). However, since Karl Roberson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Cezar Ferreira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:20 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 272 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -96 |
Cezar Ferreira dominated Karl Roberson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:20 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 192 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -12 |
Cezar Ferreira demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Cezar Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Karl Roberson's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 115 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Cezar Ferreira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karl Roberson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 087 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

