Cezar Ferreira vs Karl Roberson

May 11, 2018

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1146
(+34)
Cezar Ferreira
Winner: Cezar Ferreira
Submission
Round 1 • 4:45

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Cezar Ferreira+34
Karl Roberson-30
1014
(-30)
Karl Roberson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +25Karl Roberson: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Total UFC Fights132
Experience Gap11-11
Experience ELO1 1581 037
ELO Change+25-25
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What Happened

Cezar Ferreira's 11-fight experience advantage (13 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cezar Ferreira for the expected result. Had Karl Roberson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +18Karl Roberson: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0871 002
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +51Karl Roberson: -31

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:454:45
Win Type ELO1 2081 032
ELO Change+51-31
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What Happened

Cezar Ferreira earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +26Karl Roberson: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Significant Strikes Landed54
Significant Strikes Attempted66
Total Strikes Landed1420
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0471 024
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

Karl Roberson controlled the striking through superior accuracy (66.7% vs 83.3%). However, since Karl Roberson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Cezar Ferreira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +96Karl Roberson: -96

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted30
Ground Control Time4:200:00
Ground Strikes Landed41
Ground ELO1 2721 001
ELO Change+96-96
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What Happened

Cezar Ferreira dominated Karl Roberson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:20 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +15Karl Roberson: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Days Since Last Fight182182
Activity ELO1 1921 008
ELO Change+15-12
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What Happened

Cezar Ferreira demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Cezar Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Karl Roberson's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +20Karl Roberson: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 1151 005
ELO Change+20-17
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What Happened

Cezar Ferreira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karl Roberson is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Cezar Ferreira: +18Karl Roberson: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricCezar FerreiraKarl Roberson
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0871 002
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.