February 21, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 046 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +46 |
Sam Alvey overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Cezar Ferreira.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:34 | 3:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 082 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +98 |
Sam Alvey earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:34, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 36 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 940 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Cezar Ferreira controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (13 vs 4), superior accuracy (36.1% vs 50.0%). However, since Cezar Ferreira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sam Alvey's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 044 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 240 | 107 |
| Activity ELO | 1 101 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +64 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated solid activity levels with 107 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Cezar Ferreira's 240-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Sam Alvey extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cezar Ferreira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.