August 2, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 051 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:47 | 0:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 121 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -37 |
Cezar Ferreira locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:47 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 141 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 3 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 090 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 406 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 039 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Cezar Ferreira demonstrated extended layoff with 406 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Cezar Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Santos's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 047 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Cezar Ferreira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cezar Ferreira | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

