December 13, 2012
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 120 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Chad Mendes's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chad Mendes for the expected result. Had Yaotzin Meza pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:55 | 1:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 217 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -24 |
Chad Mendes earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:55, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 228 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Chad Mendes controlled the striking exchanges with 10 vs 2 significant strikes, 76.9% vs 13.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Chad Mendes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 158 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 092 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Chad Mendes demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chad Mendes capitalized on this activity level, while Yaotzin Meza's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 070 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Chad Mendes extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Yaotzin Meza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chad Mendes | Yaotzin Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

