January 24, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Joshua Burkman's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joshua Burkman for the expected result. Had Chad Reiner pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 978 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Joshua Burkman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 966 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Joshua Burkman controlled the striking exchanges with 69 vs 41 total strikes, 27 vs 6 significant strikes, 55.1% vs 20.0% accuracy. Joshua Burkman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 12:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 891 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Joshua Burkman dominated Chad Reiner on the ground with 9 vs 1 takedowns, 12:16 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 202 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +17 |
Joshua Burkman demonstrated standard activity with 202 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Joshua Burkman capitalized on this activity level, while Chad Reiner's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Joshua Burkman extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chad Reiner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chad Reiner | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.