February 20, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 970 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:37 | 2:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 985 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +21 |
Demian Maia earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:37, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 027 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Chael Sonnen lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Demian Maia's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 0:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 063 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Demian Maia controlled Chael Sonnen on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 002 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +27 |
Demian Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Chael Sonnen's 1002-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 975 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +27 |
Demian Maia continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Chael Sonnen's now at 0.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 970 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.