May 26, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 987 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Jeremy Horn's 7-fight experience advantage (10 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Horn for the expected result. Had Chael Sonnen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:17 | 1:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 997 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +38 |
Jeremy Horn earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:17, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Chael Sonnen was submitted.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 039 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Chael Sonnen controlled the striking through superior volume (34 vs 5 total strikes), superior accuracy (33.3% vs 60.0%). However, since Chael Sonnen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jeremy Horn's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 083 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Jeremy Horn edged out Chael Sonnen on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 51 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
Jeremy Horn demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Horn capitalized on this activity level, while Chael Sonnen's 51-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 989 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Jeremy Horn extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chael Sonnen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Jeremy Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

