August 16, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 198 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Chael Sonnen's 2-fight experience advantage (13 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chael Sonnen for the expected result. Had Mauricio Rua pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 106 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:47 | 4:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 393 | 1 340 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -52 |
Chael Sonnen earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 453 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Chael Sonnen controlled the striking exchanges with 58 vs 9 total strikes, 5 vs 0 significant strikes, 55.6% vs 0.0% accuracy. Chael Sonnen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:49 | 0:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 484 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Chael Sonnen dominated Mauricio Rua on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:49 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 290 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -17 |
Chael Sonnen demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chael Sonnen capitalized on this activity level, while Mauricio Rua's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 136 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Chael Sonnen started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mauricio Rua is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.